Charts of the Week

Year-on-year growth in consumer prices strengthened again in September, from 3.0% to 3.3%, while prices rose by 0.1% month-on-month. The year-on-year contribution of both groups that include petroleum products increased again, as prices of these products rose somewhat more markedly in September. The transport group (motor fuels) and the housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels group (heating oil) thus contributed 2.1 p.p. to year-on-year inflation. Services price growth slowed slightly for the third consecutive month but remained relatively high at 4.1%. Somewhat stronger seasonal factors have contributed significantly to the slowdown in recent months, with prices of package holidays in particular declining by more than usual. Services prices contributed 1.4 p.p. to inflation in September. Prices of semi-durable goods were 0.8% higher year-on-year, while prices of durable goods remained lower (by 1.5%). Prices in the food and non-alcoholic beverages group remained lower year-on-year (-0.7%) following a second consecutive monthly decline (this time by 0.2%). Inflation as measured by the HICP stood at 3.7% in Slovenia, 0.1 p.p. below Eurostat's first estimate for the euro area.

In the first seven months, real turnover was higher year-on-year in all trade sectors except retail trade in food, beverages and tobacco products. Following strong growth at the beginning of the year, sales in trade declined somewhat in recent months, mainly due to lower wholesale turnover, which fell for the fourth consecutive month in July following strong growth in March. In July, real turnover continued to increase in motor vehicle trade and retail trade in non-food products. Turnover in retail trade in food, beverages and tobacco products declined; over the past three years, it has fluctuated around its 2021 average (all seasonally adjusted). Year-on-year, sales in the first seven months were lower only in retail trade in food, beverages and tobacco products (by 1%). In motor vehicle trade, sales increased by 7% year-on-year, while wholesale trade and retail trade in non-food products each recorded growth of around 3%.

Total real turnover in market services declined in July, after strong growth in the second quarter (seasonally adjusted), but remained higher year-on-year. Following earlier growth, turnover declined in professional and technical activities and in information and communication. It continued to decline in administrative and support service activities, particularly in employment services, as well as in transportation and storage. Amid continued growth in overnight stays, particularly by foreign tourists, turnover increased further in accommodation and food service activities (all seasonally adjusted). In the first seven months, total real turnover was 7.3% higher year-on-year. The largest increase was recorded in professional and technical activities (11.6%).

The yield to maturity on the Slovenian government bond rose markedly again in the third quarter, by 21 basis points to 3.63%, and exceeded 4% at the end of the period. Yields to maturity increased markedly across global bond markets. Amid high energy prices and inflationary pressures, the ECB also raised its key interest rates again in the third quarter. Against the backdrop of existing debt levels and additional government measures to mitigate high energy prices, risks to the sustainability of public finances also increased. Despite the marked increase in the yield to maturity on the Slovenian government bond, the spread over the German government bond yield narrowed compared with the second quarter (by 4 basis points), to 37 basis points.