Slovenian Economic Mirror 8/2022: A marked slowdown in economic activity, lower expectations not having a noticeable impact on export growth, and no signs of a slowdown in the labour market
In the third quarter of this year, GDP in Slovenia fell by 1.4% compared to the second quarter, and the year-on-year growth (3.4%) was lower than in the first half of the year and in line with IMAD’s expectations in its Autumn Forecast of 5% GDP growth for 2022. Household...
Charts of the week from 14 to 18 November 2022: gross domestic product, natural gas consumption, electricity consumption by consumption group and other charts
In the third quarter, GDP fell compared to the second quarter (by 1.4%) and year-on-year growth (3.4%, not seasonally...
Charts of the week from 7 to 11 November 2022: production volume in manufacturing
After a decline in September, manufacturing output rose slightly in the third quarter in current terms and was also...
Charts of the week from 24 October to 4 November 2022: consumer prices, natural gas consumption, electricity consumption and other charts
The year-on-year consumer price inflation slowed slightly in October (to 9.9%), mainly due to a higher base of last year...
Given the high growth in the first half of the year and a more marked slowdown towards the end of 2022, we forecast GDP growth of 5.0%. The situation will remain tight in the first half of next year. After a recovery in the second half of the year, GDP will increase by 1.4% in 2023. Inflation is expected to remain close to 10% until the end of this year before gradually moderating by the end of next year, averaging 6% in the year as a whole.
Employment will continue to increase and unemployment will continue to fall until the end of this year. Next year we expect a significantly lower employment intensity, which is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year.
Due to the aggravation of the energy crisis and the weakening of foreign demand, we expect a sharper slowdown in the growth of trade in goods this year and even more so next year. Trade in services is expected to exceed pre-crisis levels this year, while trade in travel will only do so in the coming years.
The Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development of the Republic of Slovenia is an independent government office.
The Institute performs the following tasks:
- it monitors and analyses current trends and development in its economic, social and environmental dimensions;
- it monitors and analyses the achieving of the development objectives of the country;
- it prepares macroeconomic forecasts and other expert groundwork that serve as the basis for budgetary planning and formulating economic policy measures;
- it analyses productivity and competitiveness as the national productivity board;
- it carries out research work.