Slovenian Economic Mirror 5/2024: In the first four to five months, activity in most sectors was slightly higher year-on-year, while activity in construction was lower
In Slovenia, manufacturing output contracted in May after rising in April, while exports of goods fell slightly. In the first five months, manufacturing output was similar to a year ago (0.2% higher), while exports of goods were higher (by 1.0%). Sentiment in export-oriented activities deteriorated in June, with…
Charts of the week from 15 to 18 July 2024: number of persons in employment, activity in construction, current account of the balance of payments, road and rail freight transport
In May, the year-on-year growth in number of persons in employment (1.3%) remained similar to the first four months of…
Charts of the week from 8 to 12 July 2024: production volume in manufacturing and electricity consumption by consumption group
Amid strong monthly fluctuations, manufacturing output in the first five months of the year remained largely unchanged…
Charts of the week from 1 to 5 July 2024: exports and imports of goods, value of fiscally verified invoices, unemployment and bonds
Real exports and imports of goods, which declined in May, were higher year-on-year in the first five months. In June,…
National productivity board
IMAD analyses productivity and competitiveness as the national productivity board
GDP and prices
Economic growth will pick up this year (2.4%), albeit somewhat more modestly than what we forecast in the autumn (2.8%). Economic activity will benefit from continued investment growth, easing of inflationary pressure and a recovery in foreign demand, although this will be somewhat weaker than expected in the autumn. We expect GDP growth to increase slightly in the next two years. Inflation is expected to gradually moderate for most of this year before rising towards the end of this year and early next year due to the base effect and the expiry of measures to contain high energy prices. We expect inflation to approach 2% in 2026.
Labour market
The increase of employment and the decline in unemployment are set to moderate further this year. Employment will not increase significantly in the next two years, and the labour shortage will be somewhat alleviated by certain measures to facilitate the recruitment and hiring of foreign workers, which should be further strengthened. As in recent years, the employment of foreign workers will be the key to employment growth.
International trade
We expect a recovery in goods exports this year after last year’s decline and slightly higher growth in value added in manufacturing, while growth in services exports will be driven mainly by growth in tourism-related services. Growth will be curbed by a further deterioration in competitiveness as a result of increased domestic cost pressure. With the gradually higher growth in foreign demand, we expect higher growth in exports and related activities in the next two years.
IMAD
The Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development of the Republic of Slovenia is an independent government office.
The Institute performs the following tasks:
- it monitors and analyses current trends and development in its economic, social and environmental dimensions;
- it monitors and analyses the achieving of the development objectives of the country;
- it prepares macroeconomic forecasts and other expert groundwork that serve as the basis for budgetary planning and formulating economic policy measures;
- it analyses productivity and competitiveness as the national productivity board;
- it carries out research work.