Charts of the Week

Year-on-year consumer price inflation remained at 3.3% in October, while prices were also unchanged month-on-month. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, and transport continued to make the largest contribution to year-on-year inflation (2.0 p.p.). In October, somewhat larger price changes were recorded, particularly in the food and non-alcoholic beverages group. Prices in this group had been lower year-on-year in the third quarter, but following a 1.6% month-on-month increase in October, they were already 0.7% higher than a year earlier. Prices of durable goods continued to decline year-on-year (–2.1%), while prices of semi-durable goods were also lower year-on-year (–0.1%). Year-on-year growth in services prices slowed slightly for the fourth consecutive month (to 3.7%). In our assessment, a somewhat more pronounced seasonal decline in package holiday prices again contributed significantly to this slowdown. Following an above-average increase at the beginning of the tourist season, package holiday prices fell by more than a quarter over the last two months. Services prices thus contributed 1.3 p.p. to overall inflation in October.

The Economic Sentiment Indicator declined in October and was also lower year-on-year for the first time in five months, although it remained just above its long-term average. Compared with September, only the confidence indicator in construction increased, remaining well above its long-term average. The confidence indicators in manufacturing and services remained unchanged, while those in retail trade and among consumers declined noticeably. Compared with October last year, only the confidence indicator in manufacturing was higher. This indicator has improved noticeably over the past year but remains below its long-term average. All other confidence indicators were lower year-on-year, while the confidence indicators in construction and services were the only ones that remained above their long-term averages.

Real turnover in trade declined in recent months (seasonally adjusted), but in the first eight months of the year it was higher year-on-year (3%). The decline in recent months was mainly driven by wholesale trade, where sales fell for the fifth consecutive month in August following strong growth in March. After strong growth in the second quarter, real turnover in motor vehicle trade also declined in August for the second consecutive month. Turnover in retail trade in food, beverages and tobacco products remained broadly unchanged from the previous month and has fluctuated around its 2021 average for the past three years. Turnover in retail trade in non-food products continued to increase, with the strongest growth recorded in sales of household appliances and audio and video recordings (all seasonally adjusted). Year-on-year, sales in the first eight months were lower only in retail trade in food, beverages and tobacco products (by 1%). In motor vehicle trade, sales increased by 7% year-on-year, while wholesale trade and retail trade in non-food products each recorded growth of around 3%.

Total real turnover in market services remained unchanged month-on-month in August (seasonally adjusted) and was higher year-on-year. In administrative and support service activities, turnover remained unchanged amid renewed growth in employment services, similarly turnover in transportation and storage also remained at its July level. In both activities, turnover has remained broadly stagnant, with minor fluctuations, for the third consecutive year. Turnover in information and communication increased again, this time mainly due to growth in computer services. It also continued to increase in accommodation and food service activities, where turnover in accommodation services has been growing strongly this year. Turnover in professional and technical activities declined further, amid a continued contraction in architectural and engineering services (all seasonally adjusted). In the first eight months of the year, total real turnover was 6.5% higher year-on-year. Growth was strongest in professional and technical activities (11.3%) and in information and communication (9%).