Autumn forecast

The Autumn Forecast predicts 4.4% GDP growth for this year; in the next two years the broad-based economic growth will continue, hovering between 3% and 4%. The forecast is based on assumptions of stable economic conditions at home and internationally and favourable expectations. The key drivers of this year’s faster growth are the high growth of exports and the dynamics of government investment; this is expected to increase this year after dropping substantially in 2016. In the next few years economic growth will be increasingly affected by demographic factors, which will show particularly in lower growth in employment and, consequently, in disposable income and private consumption.