Slovenian Economic Mirror 4/2026: Relatively favourable economic developments at the beginning of the second quarter; inflation accelerates
Economic developments remained relatively favourable at the beginning of the second quarter amid heightened uncertainty. Following stronger growth since the beginning of the year, exports remained broadly unchanged in April and were higher in real terms year-on-year in the first four months of 2026. This growth was…
Charts of the week from 15 to 19 June 2026: Slovenian industrial producer prices, number of persons in employment and activity in construction
Slovenian industrial producer prices increased by 0.7% month-on-month in May, while year-on-year growth accelerated to 2.1%, reaching its highest level since August 2023. The strongest price increase was recorded in durable consumer goods. The value of construction put in place has been strengthening since the beginning of the year, driven by…
Charts of the week from 8 to 12 June 2026: production volume in manufacturing, current account of the balance of payments and electricity consumption by consumption group
After increasing at the beginning of the year, manufacturing output remained unchanged in April compared with March, with growth recorded only in medium-low-technology industries. In the first four months of the year, manufacturing output was higher year-on-year (by 1.7%), with growth recorded across all…
Charts of the week from 1 to 5 June 2026: unemployment, exports and imports of goods
The number of unemployed persons also declined marginally in May (–0.2%, seasonally adjusted). In the first five months of the year, it was 0.4% lower year-on-year. However, the number of unemployed young people has been rising since October 2024, which we assess to reflect the entry of larger cohorts into the labour market amid…
National productivity board
IMAD analyses productivity and competitiveness as the national productivity board
GDP and prices
GDP growth is projected to strengthen to 2.0% this year (from 1.1%), broadly in line with autumn’s expectations. The export sector will gradually recover, supported by improved prospects for industrial production in Slovenia’s main trading partners. Investment activity will continue to expand, driven primarily by public investment. Growth in private consumption will strengthen this year alongside further increases in real disposable income. Inflation this year (2.6% at year-end) is expected to remain similar to last year, amid above-average growth in services and food prices.
Labour market
Employment is expected to stagnate due to limited labour supply, while unemployment will remain low. Wage growth will be higher this year than last (6.7% in nominal terms; 6.5% in the public sector and 6.7% in the private sector). Growth will be particularly pronounced in the private sector, where last year’s slowdown was largely statistical (extra payments were significantly reduced following the introduction of the winter bonus, which is not included in wage growth).
International trade
Growth in exports of goods and services is projected to strengthen this year. Goods export growth will be supported by the recovery of industrial production in Slovenia’s trading partners, investment in the pharmaceutical industry, the launch of production of a new car model, and a higher number of working days. Growth in services exports will also increase. Amid moderate growth in domestic demand, import growth will outpace export growth. As a result, the current account surplus will narrow, reflecting a widening deficit in trade in goods.
IMAD
The Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development of the Republic of Slovenia is an independent government office.
The Institute performs the following tasks:
- it monitors and analyses current trends and development in its economic, social and environmental dimensions;
- it monitors and analyses the achieving of the development objectives of the country;
- it prepares macroeconomic forecasts and other expert groundwork that serve as the basis for budgetary planning and formulating economic policy measures;
- it analyses productivity and competitiveness as the national productivity board;
- it carries out research work.