Autumn Forecast of Economic Trends 2026: economic growth strengthens markedly this year before moderating in the coming years; inflation also slightly higher
Economic growth is projected to be considerably higher this year (3.8%) than last year (1.5%), with the broad-based strengthening of economic activity also significantly exceeding our spring forecast (2.0%). The acceleration, particularly pronounced in the first half of the year, reflects several factors: a strong…
Charts of the week from 7 to 11 September 2026: production volume in manufacturing, unemployment and electricity consumption by consumption group
Manufacturing output is strengthening; in the first seven months of the year, it was 2.6% higher than a year earlier. Growth was broad-based, with the largest increase in output recorded in higher-technology industries, partly reflecting the impact of some…
Charts of the week from 31 August to 4 September 2026: consumer prices, exports and imports of goods, turnover in market services
Year-on-year inflation edged up slightly in August (to 3.0%), mainly due to higher petroleum product prices, while growth in services prices remained relatively high. Trade in goods declined month-on-month in July, but exports in the first seven months were 6.3% higher year-on-year, with exports of pharmaceutical…
Charts of the week from 24 to 28 August 2026: economic sentiment, turnover in trade, active and inactive population
Economic sentiment deteriorated slightly in August but remained higher than a year earlier and above its long-term average. Real turnover increased in all trade sectors in the second quarter. In the first half of the year, it was lower year-on-year only in the retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco products.…
National productivity board
IMAD analyses productivity and competitiveness as the national productivity board
Gross domestic product and prices
Economic growth this year (3.8%) is expected to be considerably higher than last year (1.5%). The acceleration in economic activity, particularly pronounced in the first half of the year, was driven by several factors: a strong recovery in exports, further supported by the launch of new production capacities in the pharmaceutical and automotive industries; the completion of major investment projects; and continued growth in household disposable income and consumption. The broad-based strengthening of economic activity also points to the economy’s resilience and adaptability amid heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty in the international environment. Inflation is expected to average 3.1% this year, with increases in energy and services prices contributing significantly to overall inflation.
Labour market
Employment is expected to increase slightly this year (by 0.3%) and then stabilise at a high level amid labour supply constraints. The employment of foreign workers will continue to make an important contribution to employment growth. Average gross wage growth is expected to reach 7.9% this year. Wage growth in the public sector will remain high due to the implementation of the wage reform. In the private sector, it will strengthen, driven by stronger economic activity, persistent labour market pressures, higher wage expectations and the increase in the minimum wage.
International trade
Growth in total exports is expected to strengthen considerably this year (5.3%), largely reflecting a recovery in goods exports, supported in part by the launch of new production capacities in the pharmaceutical and automotive industries. Growth in services exports is also expected to strengthen. Against the backdrop of strong investment activity and rising domestic consumption, total imports are expected to grow even faster (by 6.5%). As a result, the current account surplus is expected to narrow, also reflecting a deterioration in the terms of trade due to rising energy prices on global markets.
IMAD
The Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development of the Republic of Slovenia is an independent government office.
The Institute performs the following tasks:
- it monitors and analyses current trends and development in its economic, social and environmental dimensions;
- it monitors and analyses the achieving of the development objectives of the country;
- it prepares macroeconomic forecasts and other expert groundwork that serve as the basis for budgetary planning and formulating economic policy measures;
- it analyses productivity and competitiveness as the national productivity board;
- it carries out research work.