Autumn forecast

In the Autumn Forecast, IMAD predicts a 6.7% decline in GDP for this year. The forecasts for Slovenia’s main trading partners for this year have improved somewhat since June. With the recovery of economic activity and, in particular, with the agreement at the EU level on the financial package for faster recovery of the EU economy, confidence indicators also improved significantly in the period from May to July. This will be reflected in a somewhat smaller annual decline in GDP than expected in the Summer Forecast, despite a renewed minor fall in some indicators in recent weeks. The sharp decline in the second quarter will thus be followed by an increase in activity, but as the virus is still present and some restrictions remain in place, the recovery will be gradual and its pace uneven across sectors. Uncertainty associated with the epidemiological situation remains high. A possible uncontrolled spread of the virus and thus the possibility of a new major closure of certain activities could lead to a deeper fall in GDP and, in particular, to a slower and prolonged recovery. However, if the spread of the virus is effectively and permanently contained or a vaccine or a medicine is made widely available soon, activity could recover more rapidly than predicted.