Charts of the week from 6 to 10 May 2024: manufacturing, number of registered unemployed and electricity consumption
In April, the monthly decline in the number of registered unemployed was similar to the previous two months. Total unemployment fell by 7% year-on-year, while the number of long-term unemployed fell by 15%, against the backdrop of labour shortages. Electricity consumption in April was 8% lower year-on-year. Manufacturing…
Charts of the week from 29 Aprila to 3 May 2024: consumer prices, value of fiscally verified invoices, trade in goods and other charts
In April, year-on-year inflation dropped to 3%, the lowest level since October 2021. The slowdown was mainly due to less…
Development Report 2024: Slowdown in Slovenia’s real convergence process during the epidemic and the energy crisis; development challenges in productivity, decarbonisation of the economy, social protection systems and governance of public institutions
In Slovenia, a robust post-COVID-19 economic recovery, supported by improved conditions in trading partners and…
Charts of the week from 22 to 26 April 2024: economic sentiment, turnover in trade and average gross wage per employee
The economic sentiment indicator rose month-on-month in April in all activities except in construction; economic…
National productivity board
IMAD analyses productivity and competitiveness as the national productivity board
GDP and prices
Economic growth will pick up this year (2.4%), albeit somewhat more modestly than what we forecast in the autumn (2.8%). Economic activity will benefit from continued investment growth, easing of inflationary pressure and a recovery in foreign demand, although this will be somewhat weaker than expected in the autumn. We expect GDP growth to increase slightly in the next two years. Inflation is expected to gradually moderate for most of this year before rising towards the end of this year and early next year due to the base effect and the expiry of measures to contain high energy prices. We expect inflation to approach 2% in 2026.
Labour market
The increase of employment and the decline in unemployment are set to moderate further this year. Employment will not increase significantly in the next two years, and the labour shortage will be somewhat alleviated by certain measures to facilitate the recruitment and hiring of foreign workers, which should be further strengthened. As in recent years, the employment of foreign workers will be the key to employment growth.
International trade
We expect a recovery in goods exports this year after last year’s decline and slightly higher growth in value added in manufacturing, while growth in services exports will be driven mainly by growth in tourism-related services. Growth will be curbed by a further deterioration in competitiveness as a result of increased domestic cost pressure. With the gradually higher growth in foreign demand, we expect higher growth in exports and related activities in the next two years.
IMAD
The Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development of the Republic of Slovenia is an independent government office.
The Institute performs the following tasks:
- it monitors and analyses current trends and development in its economic, social and environmental dimensions;
- it monitors and analyses the achieving of the development objectives of the country;
- it prepares macroeconomic forecasts and other expert groundwork that serve as the basis for budgetary planning and formulating economic policy measures;
- it analyses productivity and competitiveness as the national productivity board;
- it carries out research work.