Current Economic Trends

Current Economic Trends

Current economic trends from 21 to 25 October 2019: trade, market services, economic sentiment indicator and Slovenian industrial producer prices

Turnover in trade maintained the achieved level in the summer months. Further turnover growth was recorded in most market services. Confidence in these activities was still relatively high at the beginning of the last quarter of the year.

During the summer months turnover in trade remained roughly the same as at the beginning of the year. Turnover in the sale of motor vehicles has been stagnating this year, after strong growth rates in the previous four. In retail trade, turnover in durable goods remains high, turnover in non-durable food and non-food products is rising further, while turnover in motor fuels has been dropping after strong growth at the end of last year. Turnover in wholesale trade has also been strengthening after stagnation in the first half of the year.

During the summer months turnover continued to rise across most market services. Strong growth was maintained in professional and technical services, particularly in management consultancy activities and architectural and engineering services. A continuation of strong growth was also recorded in accommodation and food service activities, mostly on the back of good business results in food and beverage serving enterprises. Turnover growth in administrative and support service activities moderated slightly, mainly on account of a further decline in employment services. The growth of export revenue from road transport moderated as well, which contributed to a slowdown of growth in total transport. Turnover in information and communication activities has stagnated since the beginning of the year.

The deterioration in business confidence has slowed in the second half of the year. The decline of confidence in manufacturing moderated, while retail trade confidence and confidence in service activities have been hovering at similar levels since the middle of the year. In recent months confidence has been falling among consumers, who are pessimistic particularly regarding the future economic situation and employment. Confidence in construction has also been declining for quite some time.

The total year-on-year growth of Slovenian industrial producer prices remained low (0.4%) in September. With the moderation of foreign demand, prices are falling on foreign markets. In the last few months they have fallen by around 1.5% year on year. Price growth on the domestic market remains at around 2%, which is largely a consequence of strong price rises in energy (due to higher prices in electricity, gas and steam supply, where year-on-year growth totals around 15%). Price growth in most other product groups was modest. Above-average rises were recorded only for non-durable goods (2.4%), as a consequence of solid growth in household consumption, according to our estimate.