Spring forecast of economic trends 2020
The spring forecast was made at the time of significant uncertainties regarding the further spread and duration of the coronavirus outbreak in neighbouring countries and Slovenia. In the event of a gradual containment of the coronavirus spread and stabilisation of the situation in the second half of this year, economic growth would ease to around 1.5% this year, before rising somewhat again in the next two. This year’s slowdown in economic growth following last year’s notable moderation in the last quarter mainly reflects lower growth in foreign demand, which is increasingly affected by great uncertainty related to the consequences of the coronavirus spread. Growth in domestic consumption is also slowing. Growth in household consumption will thus be lower than last year but should remain relatively robust. Investment will most likely not exceed last year’s levels. In 2021 and 2022 economic growth could again be somewhat higher than this year, which is however crucially based on the assumption that the situation stabilises in the second half of his year. A longer-lasting coronavirus epidemic and accompanying containment measures would significantly alter the entire framework of the forecast, so that economic growth could be considerably lower than currently expected. Economic conditions in Slovenia and globally are rapidly changing. We are monitoring them and will update the forecast as necessary.