Development Report 2024: Slowdown in Slovenia’s real convergence process during the epidemic and the energy crisis; development challenges in productivity, decarbonisation of the economy, social protection systems and governance of public institutions
In Slovenia, a robust post-COVID-19 economic recovery, supported by improved conditions in trading partners and substantial fiscal policy measures, was followed by a slowdown in economic growth and an increase in inflation in 2022 and 2023 in the context of the energy crisis. The impact of rising cost pressures on…
Charts of the week from 15 to 19 April 2024: number of persons in employment, activity in construction, value of fiscally verified invoices and other charts
In February, the number of persons in employment continued to rise year-on-year. This increase was mainly driven by a…
Slovenian Economic Mirror 2/2024: A further gradual recovery in economic indicators and an improvement in economic sentiment, which nevertheless remains below the level of a year ago
Sentiment in the Slovenian economy was still lower in the first quarter than in the same period last year, but better…
Charts of the week from 8 to 12 April 2024: electricity consumption by consumption group, production volume in manufacturing and current account of the balance of payments
Electricity consumption in the distribution network was lower year-on-year in March in all consumption groups.…
National productivity board
IMAD analyses productivity and competitiveness as the national productivity board
GDP and prices
Economic growth will pick up this year (2.4%), albeit somewhat more modestly than what we forecast in the autumn (2.8%). Economic activity will benefit from continued investment growth, easing of inflationary pressure and a recovery in foreign demand, although this will be somewhat weaker than expected in the autumn. We expect GDP growth to increase slightly in the next two years. Inflation is expected to gradually moderate for most of this year before rising towards the end of this year and early next year due to the base effect and the expiry of measures to contain high energy prices. We expect inflation to approach 2% in 2026.
Labour market
The increase of employment and the decline in unemployment are set to moderate further this year. Employment will not increase significantly in the next two years, and the labour shortage will be somewhat alleviated by certain measures to facilitate the recruitment and hiring of foreign workers, which should be further strengthened. As in recent years, the employment of foreign workers will be the key to employment growth.
International trade
We expect a recovery in goods exports this year after last year’s decline and slightly higher growth in value added in manufacturing, while growth in services exports will be driven mainly by growth in tourism-related services. Growth will be curbed by a further deterioration in competitiveness as a result of increased domestic cost pressure. With the gradually higher growth in foreign demand, we expect higher growth in exports and related activities in the next two years.
IMAD
The Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development of the Republic of Slovenia is an independent government office.
The Institute performs the following tasks:
- it monitors and analyses current trends and development in its economic, social and environmental dimensions;
- it monitors and analyses the achieving of the development objectives of the country;
- it prepares macroeconomic forecasts and other expert groundwork that serve as the basis for budgetary planning and formulating economic policy measures;
- it analyses productivity and competitiveness as the national productivity board;
- it carries out research work.